The responsibilities associated with this position include:
Provide regularly updated short to medium-term market price forecasts, with in-depth understanding and extensive analyses covering the following fundamental areas using the necessary tools (fundamental and probabilistic models).
- Thermal plant generator configurations update including plant/unit availability schedule/deration/efficiency, fuel price forecast, and short-run marginal cost monitoring.
- Progress monitoring and due diligence on new capacities particularly affecting the short to long-term horizon (e.g., updated target commissioning date, detailed project status).
- Hydro plant system updates
Plant/unit availability schedule/deration/efficiency
Updated reservoir elevation status of reservoirs
Incorporation of update on inflow forecast for all hydro plants
Irrigation requirements, flood control, rule curve, bathymetric and other operational constraints
- Demand growth forecasting (by segment, location, etc.)
- Fuel price movements and analysis
- Macroeconomic factors (forex rates, inflation, GDP, etc.)
- Transmission network representation update
- Formulate range of assumptions for all determined price drivers in the econometric model for probabilistic modeling
- Other variables, trends, and constraints that impact the expected movement in market prices
Development and maintenance of methodologies and tools necessary for forecasting the major price drivers to be used as assumptions to forecast market prices such as:
- Thermal plant availability profile, Demand forecasting, Fuel price projections, new capacity profiling and, other significant drivers affecting market prices.
Perform regular back-testing and historical analysis of the market for performance monitoring translated into regular reports.
- Provide information on the accuracy of the following simulated parameters: Market prices, Plant generation (thermals, hydro, and other renewables), Demand growth, and other parameters deemed significant.
- Provide analysis on the variances from forecast to actual for these fundamental factors.
- Market forecast accuracy monitoring
Provide an extensive outlook on relevant markets covering the medium-term (energy, ancillary services, renewable energy markets, and any other relevant markets) with a market price including analysis covering the significant drivers affecting market prices including but not limited to the following:
- Progress monitoring and assessment on the markets structural and regulatory changes
- Power consumption behavior and forecast in the medium term
- Understanding global fuel price market movements and its impact to the energy market
- Projected portfolio of participants in the spot, ancillary services, and the RE markets with the development of existing and new technologies/participants particularly on their costs, respective technological advancements, operational, and bid behavior.
- Sensitivity analyses on spot market prices in the short to medium-term including varying potential market landscape.
Proper data handling and process documentation:
- Data storage and documentation of all relevant market data, hydrological and plant data required to perform these tasks
- Preparation and update of processes and procedures to perform tasks
- Market data processing and automation, and process improvement activities
Other tasks that may be assigned from time to time as follows but not limited to:
- SCALE exercise (one year look back analysis on market performance)
- Support in the econometric modeling activities, mainly with the formulation of the econometric model which stands as the market pricing formula for the probabilistic Crystal Ball model.
- Development of the probabilistic model for market price forecasting using Python programming language for a more efficient and faster simulation runtime.
- Provide evaluation on the financial viability of plant maintenance activities.
- Other sources of price references/indices (e.g. MERALCO blended rates projections) as required.
- Training of colleagues as deemed necessary.
- Assist in the implementation of Integrated Management Systems (Quality, Occupational Health and Safety, Environmental, and Asset) and compliance to regulatory requirements.
- Participate in the different programs of the organization
- Performs other related duties that may be assigned by the immediate superior.
Requirements:
Skills:
- Market Analysis
- Statistical and analytical skills
- Corporate Planning / Financial Analysis
- Optimization, Market Simulation Tools, Forecasting models (SDDP/PLEXOS/Crystal Ball/ Monte Carlo simulations)
- Capacity to do research work: Markets, Plant technological advancements and cost, Contracts, Policies, Rules and, Regulations (including External Relations/Customer Orientation)
- Wholesale Electricity Spot Market and Ancillary Services Operations
- Ability to understand and absorb broad business/regulatory issues, finance and mathematical concepts
- Ability to execute under pressure and under tight time schedules
- Knowledge in Google Suite applications, Lean Six Sigma, and Data Science
- Excellent oral and written communication skills.
- With preference for candidates with substantial working knowledge on hydroelectric power plant operations, electric power system operation and analysis, and programming.
Experience:
- At least five (5) years of experience in the energy market with background in Engineering and/or technical field, and experience in planning, forecasting, and market analysis.
- Highly substantial experience in the energy market.
Education:
- Degree in Engineering, Mathematics, Statistics, or Applied Sciences
- Master's Degree in Engineering, Energy Economics or any relevant degree
- Experience or knowledge in financial planning is preferred.
- PhD in any relevant discipline an advantage.
